After rising steadily for the previous two years, the rolling average of year-on-year changes gradually started to fall in the Autumn of 2007. Through to May 2009 the monthly fluctuations were quite significant but with an underlying downward trend. The same fluctuations can be seen in the subsequent months except that the trend has been reversed with the rolling average moving gradually upwards.

As would be expected, seasonally adjusting the value of the retail sales makes little difference to the rolling average nor to the pattern of year on year changes. 2008 lacked any sort of pattern but the gradual decline in the rolling average indicated the underlying trend. 2009 has also shown a high degree of volatility with a distinct improvement moving into 2010.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the increasing trend over the last two years is clearly apparent. 2008 got off to a bright start, then became more volatile only to flatten out through to December. 2009 showed somewhat less volatility but with an increasing trend emerging. Despite the VAT increase, January 2010 was a poor month due to the weather. Since then, inflationary signs have begun to apppear.

When not seasonally adjusted, the month on month changes show how sales rise to a peak leading up to the end of December followed by a sharp decline in January. Throughout the year, the general pattern of the monthly changes mirrors that of the year previous, despite slight differences in individual months.

When the the month on month figures have been seasonally adjusted, the monthly changes usually operate in a very narrow band of between + and - 1.5%. There is no pattern in the changes other than a slight similarity between one year and another when some successive months are examined. Whilst the figures are seasonally adjusted, the effect of weather conditions cannot be predicted and clearly affected what happened in January.

The chart looks at food sales in predominantly food stores, comparing the percentage year on year changes in value and volume. In every month during the last two years the rise in value has been greater than that in volume. The gap tended to widen during 2008 to one of around 7%. It has now narrowed significantly to little more than 2.0% but with both at significantly low levels.

The chart looks at non-food sales in predominantly non-food stores, comparing the percentage year on year changes in value and volume. The changes are entirely the opposite from those for food. In every month during the last two years the rise in volume has been greater than that in value. The gap fluctuated between 3% and 5% through to November 2009 after which the movements in each have been almost identical.

The chart looks at food sales in predominantly food stores, comparing the percentage year on year changes in value and volume. In every month during the last two years the rise in value has been greater than that in volume. The gap tended to widen during 2008 to one of around 7%. It has now narrowed significantly to little more than 2.0% but with both at significantly low levels.

The chart looks at non-food sales in predominantly non-food stores, comparing the percentage year on year changes in value and volume. The changes are entirely the opposite from those for food. In every month during the last two years the rise in volume has been greater than that in value. The gap fluctuated between 3% and 5% through to November 2009 after which the movements in each have been almost identical.