The year to September 2008 saw the change in the index rise to a peak of 5%. A rapid decline then followed as the onset of the recesssion approached. After moving into negative territory and reaching a low of -1.5% in June a recovery began in October. A positive inflationary trend has now appeared rising to 5.3% in April and 5.1% in May.

The RPI Index covers a consistent sample of items that constitute domestic expenditure. Normally, apart from slight falls during the January and July Sale periods, the trend rises. A distinct inflationary trend was apparent throughout 2008 until the final quarter which showed the falls that had been expected in the light of reductions in VAT and mortgage interest rates. After falling to a low point in January, the index has gradually risen and was almost 11 points above last year's level in May 2010.

Looking at the change over the previous month, the movements only lie in a band of +1% to -1%. However, most movements are greater than zero and demonstrate a gradual rise in the index. The four previous occasions in the last two years when the index fell over the previous month have been during the bi-annual Sales periods. In the quarter to Dec 2008 it fell continuously: something not seen in the past 7 years. January and February showed the anticipated correction followed by smaller variations through to the current month, but almost all above zero - and rising.